Modélisations de séquences spatialisées dans les réseaux d'ordre supérieur
Abstract
Transport Network analysis often requires to model transitions as order 1 markovian models.
Previous works suggest the use of higher order models in order to build networks that
can more accurately predict observed sequences. In this work, we compare these models'
prediction capabilities and size using different real world trajectories datasets. Beside generic
models, we introduce models that include exogenous variables such as the location or the categories
of the visited places. They provide further research opportunities. Our experimental
results suggest that the HON model (Xu et al. (2016)) offers a good compromise between predictive
capabilities and parsimony. However, some claimed properties of this model could not
be reproduced. Indeed, none of the strategies used here results in better predictions than the
fix-order model (Rosvall et al. (2014)).