Prévision de la production intrajournalière d'un ensemble de systèmes photovoltaïques par réseaux de neurones récurrents et variables exogènes physiques
Abstract
Accurate intraday forecasts of PhotoVoltaic (PV) system power outputs are crucial for
improving energy distribution grid operations. We present a neural autoregressive model for
such forecasts, building upon a physical, deterministic PV performance model. Our approach
uses the physical model's output as covariates and addresses multiple PV sites with a single
neural model. We introduce a truncated Gaussian output distribution novel in this context
and use a scale-free approach with explicit modeling of seasonal effects. The interest of the
approach is validated on real data.