Prédiction du montant levé lors d'une campagne de financement participatif par la méthode des plus proches voisins
Abstract
Crowdfunding is a methodology of funding a project from a large number of people,
in opposition with traditional practices. With the Internet and social networking, this
type of funding rapidly gained popularity. However more than 60% of projects are not
funded, thus it is necessary to prepare carefully the crowdfunding campaign. Moreover,
during the campaign, it is critical to be able to estimate the success as soon as possible
in order to react adequately (reorganization, communication): prediction tools are
then essential. In this article, we propose a prediction method for the final amounts
raised during a crowdfunding campaign using the k-NN algorithm: with history of
past campaigns, we determine the most similar ones to an ongoing campaign. Then
we use the final amounts raised to build an estimation. We compared several distance
measure to determine the nearest neighbors. Our experimental results indicate that
the last state of a campaign is a good enough information to get an accurate prediction.