Prédiction du Rayonnement Solaire par Apprentissage Automatique
Abstract
This paper describes a flexible approach to short term prediction of meteorological variables.
In particular, we focus on the prediction of the solar irradiance one hour ahead, a task
that has high practical value when optimizing solar energy resources. As Défi EGC 2018 provides
us with time series data for 5 geographical sites from La Réunion island, we test the value
of using recently observed data as input for prediction models, as well as the performance of
models across sites. After describing our data cleaning and normalization process, we combine
a variable selection step based on AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)
models, to using general purpose regression techniques such as neural networks and regression
trees.